International Conference on The Economics of Oil
02/28/2018
09:45 - 10:00 – Welcome Message: Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal (President of FGV), with Sergio Quintella (Vice President of FGV), Hilde C. Bjørnland (Norwegian Business School), Roberto Castello Branco (FGV), João Victor Issler (FGV)
10:00 - 11:00 – Opening Lecture: Pedro Parente (CEO of Petrobras) | Slides, (Chair: Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal)
11:00 - 12:30 – Round Table: The future of oil, Roberto Castello Branco (FGV, Moderator) with Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan), Warwick McKibbin (Australian National University) | Slides, Ragnar Torvik (Norwegian University of Science) | Slides and Robert Vigfusson (Federal Reserve Board) | Slides.
12:30 - 14:30 – Lunch (by invitation only)
14:30 - 15:30 – Décio Oddone (General Director of ANP – Brazilian Oil and Gas Regulatory Agency) | Slides, (Chair: Sergio Quintella)
15:30 - 16:00 – Coffee break
16:00 - 17:00 – Closing Lecture I: Warwick McKibbin (Australian National University) Sensible Design of Climate Policy to Enable an Orderly Energy Transition (attachment 1) | (attachment 2) - (Chair: Hilde C. Bjørnland)
17:00 - 18:00 – Closing Lecture II: Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan) Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities (Chair: João Victor Issler)
03/01/2018
09:00 - 10:00 – Opening remarks: Roberto Castello Branco (FGV)
· 09:00 - 09:40 – Marcio Felix Carvalho Bezerra – Brazilian Institute of Oil and Gas
· 09:40 - 10:00 – Jorge Camargo, President of IBP – Brazilian Institute of Oil and Gas
10:00 - 11:00 – Keynote I: Ian Parry (International Monetary Fund) Getting Energy Prices Right (Chair: Yoosoon Chang)
11:00 - 11:30 – Coffee break
11:30 - 12:30 – Session I – Common Features in Oil Prices (Chair: Yoosoon Chang)
· João Victor Issler (FGV): The Role of Demand Factors in Determining the Behavior of Oil Prices
· Alain Hecq (University of Maastricht) Detecting Co-Movements in Non-causal Time Series: An Application to Oil Prices | Slides
12:30 - 14:00 – Lunch (by invitation only)
14:00 - 16:00 Session II – Resource rich countries (Chair: Marcelle Chauvet)
· Pedro C. Ferreira (FGV): Fracking, China and the Global Economy
· Ragnar Torvik (Norwegian University of Science and Technology): Dutch Disease Dynamics Reconsidered
· Renée McKibbin (Australian National University) Recovery from Dutch Disease | Slides
· Hilde C. Bjørnland (Norwegian Business School): Supply Flexibility in the Shale Patch: Evidence from North Dakota
16:00 - 16:30 – Coffee break
16:30 – 18:00 Session III – Oil and business cycles (Chair: Hilde C. Bjørnland)
· Yoosoon Chang (Indiana University) World GDP and oil price: Do they have a common trend?
· Yongok Choi (Chung-Ang University) World energy consumption: Global trend and country specific characteristics
· Zack Miller (University of Missouri) Forecasting energy consumption and efficiency in developing countries: A functional coefficient panel approach
03/02/2018
09:00 - 10:00 – Keynote II: Cynthia Wu (University of Chicago) Financialization and Commodity Prices (attachment 1) | (attachment 2) (Chair: Hilde C. Bjørnland)
10:00 - 10:30 – Coffee Break
10:30 - 12:30 – Session IV - Commodity prices and monetary policy (Chair: Sergio Quintella)
· Robert Vigfusson (Federal Reserve Board): Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound
· Reinhard Ellwanger (Bank of Canada): The Simple Economics of Global Fuel Consumption
· Drago Bergholt (Norges Bank): Oil prices and optimal monetary policy
· Marcelle Chauvet (UC Riverside): "vOILatility: Forecasting oil Prices under Uncertainty"
12:30 - 14:00 – Lunch (by invitation only)
14:00 - 15:30 Session IV - Oil prices and instability (Chair: João Victor Issler)
· Junior Maih (Norges Bank): Oil and Macroeconomic (in)Stability
· Julia Zhulanova (BI Norwegian Business School): The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy
· Francesca Loria (European University Institute): The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on U.S. Investment: Size Matters
15:30 -16:00– Coffee break
16:00 - 17:00 Session VI Crude oil prices (Chair: Yoosoon Chang)
· Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti (ICADE): Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices
· Nicolas Legrand (INRA): The Delaying Effect of Storage on Investment: Evidence from The Crude Oil Sector
17:00 – 18:00 – Keynote III - Joon Park (Indiana University): Interactions of oil futures and stock market at high frequency: A distributional approach (Chair: Marcelle Chauvet)
The event will be held in English.
